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#Goud fors lager, iemand een idee?
Will Junior Mining Stocks Be THE Investment of 2011?
If you think gold and silver as an asset class are severely misunderstood, and it is, then multiply that misunderstanding 10 times, and you will realize the level of misconceptions that exist around junior mining stocks.
The typical propaganda disseminated by bankers that surround gold and silver every single year when gold and silver corrections occur dominates the mainstream financial landscape right now. In fact, even though a rapid correction in gold/silver prices and gold/silver mining stocks is normal behavior at least twice a year, for every single year of this 9-year gold and silver bull, every single correction and consolidation phase has elicited chatter from the same financial shills about the end of the precious metals “bubble”. And amazingly every year, the mainstream financial media grants them a platform to spread their disinformation to confuse investors. Last year, when gold dipped from $1,421 an ounce to $1,332 an ounce in just 6 trading days in November, an analyst I spoke to in Asia told me that he would not buy gold until after the bubble completely burst and that he would consider buying gold when it reached $600 an ounce. I believe that he is still waiting to buy today.
You may feel that this is an odd time to write a piece about one of the riskiest sectors in the precious metal investment class, especially as gold and silver prices continue to plummet in the futures markets but the proper time to buy, of course, is when fear is high and prices are low. However, once this correction ends, and I believe that it will end somewhere around the $1,300 an ounce mark and within the next several days, and not with a further $250 an ounce correction and the $1,090 an ounce mark called for by Seabreeze Partners Management’s GP Doug Kass, I expect junior miners to have a banner year. Even with my expectation of increased volatility in precious metal stocks throughout 2011, I believe that 2011 will be another strong up year for junior mining stocks after a very solid year last year. For now, I’m not going to worry about Mr. Kass’s recent call for gold to shed another $250 an ounce unless gold breaks below $1,300. Though none of us have a crystal ball that allows us to predict the future with certainty, I will only readjust my stance that this correction is days away from ending if gold breaks below $1,300. Furthermore, as you can see from the chart below, the declaration of select financial analysts in the mainstream media today that the current state of this gold bull resembles the parabolic blow-off tops of the 2000 dot com bubble and the 2008 oil price spike is patently false.
Though I haven’t reproduced the 10-year silver chart here, if one were to draw a long-term trend line through the last ten years of silver prices, one would see that despite the short-term spike in oil prices to close 2010, there is no parabolic spike above the long-term trend line for silver either. For now, I’m going to directly contradict Kass and predict a pop higher of at least $40 -$50 an ounce in gold sometime during the 10 trading days between January 28 and February 11th.
So now that we’ve established that there has been no blow-off top for gold or silver yet, let’s turn our attention to the even more misunderstood topic of junior gold and silver mining companies. To begin, let’s squash the notion that you can invest in junior mining stocks by investing in the Junior Gold Miners Market Vectors ETF GDXJ. Let’s take a look at the top eight holdings of this ETF that comprise more than 27% of the ETF’s net assets: Hecla Mining, European Goldfields, Coeur d’Alene Mines, Allied Nevada Gold, Gabriel Resources, Alamos Gold and Silver Standard Resources. Hecla Mining has a market cap of 2.20 billion, European Goldfields, 2.74 billion, Couer d’Alene, 1.99 billion, Allied Nevada, 2.21 billion, Gabriel Resources, 2.48 billion, Alamos Gold, 1.87 billion and Silver Standard 1.79 billion. Nearly all of the top 8 holdings in this “junior miner” ETF have market caps of near 2 billion dollars and fit the definition of mid-cap stocks rather than the tiny, small cap stocks that are representative of junior mining stocks.
For example, more typical junior mining stocks like Greystar Resources currently has a market cap of approximately $276.24 million and Great Panther Silver, $224.27 million. On the other side of this spectrum, a large blue-chip company like Apple currently has a market cap of about $308.10 billion. With respect to market cap, it would take 1,115 to 1,373 companies the size of Greystar Resources or Great Panther to equal the size of Apple. In other words, junior mining stocks are so small that a small amount of interest in a fundamentally sound junior mining stock with a great story can move the stock price higher by 30% in a matter of days. Of course a hedge fund or one very wealthy investor that decides to divest a substantial percent of shares in a junior mining company can also move the price down 30% in a matter of days as well. Thus the combination of great risk and great reward that exists in the junior mining sector.
So what are some of the biggest misconceptions that exist with junior mining stocks? The nonsense surrounding the junior mining sector is nonsense of a different nature than the nonsense that surrounds the major mining stocks and the gold/silver futures market. Bankers manipulate everything that has to do with gold and silver, including major and intermediate mining stocks, gold and silver futures contracts, gold/silver ETFs, and even junior mining stocks. In past years, it has been widely speculated that US hedge funds have unfairly manipulated junior mining stocks downward by taking large short positions against them to hedge their long positions in the major gold/silver miners and/or long positions in the gold/silver futures markets. When many of the junior mining stocks sold off by 75% during the latter half of 2008 after the US Federal Reserve enlisted the help of their puppet bullion banks to orchestrate a sell off of gold and silver in the futures markets, many investors were permanently scared off from ever investing in junior miners again. In fact, the share price of many junior miners have still not come back to par since that time.
So why would I be advocating paying attention to junior miners now? Besides that fact that many of the best junior miners are on sale now, as gold and silver prices complete their current correction/consolidation phase and turn higher, I expect junior mining stocks to start attracting much more attention along with higher gold and silver prices.
Many junior miners are among the lowest cost producers of gold and silver in the world or are prime acquisition targets from larger gold and silver companies that are suffering from depleting gold/silver reserves today. As interest in junior miners increase, if the rumors about hedge funds maintaining large short interests against junior mining stocks are true, then maintaining these short positions will become a very risky proposition in 2011. Furthermore, if these rumors are true, then as the majority of shorts held against junior mining stocks run for the exits, a lot of pent up energy in junior mining stocks will be released. I believe this was largely why 2010 was a banner year for many of the best junior mining stocks, as more than a handful rose by 200%, 300%, and 400% last year. Finally, interest in any one junior mining stock by a billionaire or multi-millionaire can be enough to blow the short interest of any hedge fund manager in a junior mining stock out of the water. In other words, when dealing with stocks with such small market caps, it only takes a small interest in them to cause their share price to double or triple. So if you believe gold and silver prices will continue to rise in 2011, you should most definitely consider learning more about junior mining stocks.
That said, there are many pitfalls that you must avoid. Junior mining stocks are notoriously volatile and they will remain volatile to the downside at times even if hedge fund managers unwind all the supposed shorts they hold on this class of stocks. The vast majority of drill assays reported by junior mining companies will yield zero results and not significant discoveries of gold and silver. Out of the hundreds of junior mining stocks that exist, probably no more than few dozen merit serious consideration for investment. Exploration companies that actually discover an economically mineable monster deposit will be few and far between and the exception to the rule, not the norm. As the global monetary crisis intensifies, politics and government regulations/taxation may move solid junior mining companies into a riskier investment class depending on the jurisdictions in which they operate.
In addition, junior mining stocks can also experience large unexpected drops in share price for no fundamental reason, but merely because one large investor decided to cash out, even if just to take profits. When a junior mining company is reported to have “discovered” a million ounces of gold, you should not take this report at face value. Often further digging will reveal that said company has no financing to bring the discovery to production, and that the million ounce “discovery” is a wishful extrapolation of resource estimates based upon only the best drill results and ignorance of all the bad drill results.
So yes, the risks can be significant for an investor that dives headfirst into junior mining stocks without any experience, so much so that even gold mining executives that invest in junior mining companies have relayed expectations of only a 20% success rate among their junior mining investments. In conclusion, I believe that success rates with junior miners can be upwards of 30%, 40% or even 50% or more with a little bit of due diligence and under the right circumstances, such as those that will exist in 2011. Just don’t be suckered into purchasing junior mining investments sold to you be analysts that don’t understand this sector and that you yourself do not understand. With junior mining stocks you must always perform some research yourself to ensure that you understand each junior mining company you own at all times. Never violate this rule and you should be able to use junior mining company investments to considerably boost your profits in 2011.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/will-junior-mining-stocks-be-investment-2011
houtblok, ik wil niet vervelend doen maar plaats dan het bericht op dit forum. Dat scheelt heen en weer surfen en is beter voor de discussie. Je mag wel een link plaatsen.
Goud-en Zilverstorm op komst met twee zonnen in 2012.
Earth could be getting a second sun, at least temporarily.
Dr. Brad Carter, Senior Lecturer of Physics at the University of Southern Queensland, outlined the scenario to news.com.au. Betelgeuse, one of the night sky’s brightest stars, is losing mass, indicating it is collapsing. It could run out of fuel and go super-nova at any time.
When that happens, for at least a few weeks, we’d see a second sun, Carter says. There may also be no night during that timeframe.
The Star Wars-esque scenario could happen by 2012, Carter says… or it could take longer. The explosion could also cause a neutron star or result in the formation of a black hole 1300 light years from Earth, reports news.com.au.
But doomsday sayers should be careful about speculation on this one. If the star does go super-nova, Earth will be showered with harmless particles, according to Carter. “They will flood through the Earth and bizarrely enough, even though the supernova we see visually will light up the night sky, 99 per cent of the energy in the supernova is released in these particles that will come through our bodies and through the Earth with absolutely no harm whatsoever,” he told news.com.au.
In fact, a neutrino shower could be beneficial to Earth. According to Carter this “star stuff” makes up the universe. “It literally makes things like gold, silver – all the heavy elements – even things like uranium….a star like Betelgeuse is instantly forming for us all sorts of heavy elements and atoms that our own Earth and our own bodies have from long past supernovi,” said Carter.
UPDATE: To clarify, the news.com.au article does not say a neutrino shower could be beneficial to Earth, but implies a supernova could be beneficial, stating, “Far from being a sign of the apocalypse, according to Dr Carter the supernova will provide Earth with elements necessary for survival and continuity.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/01/20/two-suns-twin-stars_n_811864.html
• Edel- en basismetalen hebben deze week geleden onder de angst dat de groei in China oververhit is, nadat de cijfers van eind 2010 sterker waren gestegen dan verwacht en het er naar uitziet dat de inflatie blijft stijgen.
• De Amerikaanse aandelenbeurs ondervond het eerste fatsoenlijke retracement in twee maanden, maar of de situatie zal leiden tot een diepere correctie, blijft de vraag – vanwege de veerkracht van deze markt over de afgelopen 6 maanden.
• De grote verliezer van deze week is zilver dat met 6% zakte de laatste week, omdat korte termijn investeerders zich terug getrokken hebben uit futures en ETF’s.
• Investeringen in goud door ETF’s zijn teruggevallen naar het niveau in augustus, aangezien goud is gezakt met 48 ton sinds de high van 20 december.
• De wereld van ruwe olie verkeert in een staat van verwarring nu er twijfel heerst over de geldigheid van de twee wereldwijde benchmarks.
• De prijs van WTI crude wordt als te goedkoop beschouwd, omdat er onduidelijkheid bestaat of de voorraad bij Cushing, Oklahoma de wereldwijde vraag aan kan.
• North Sea Brent Crude wordt kritisch onder de loep genomen nu het een hoogtepunt van $99,2 heeft bereikt en 7 dollar boven WTI handelt
• De prijs van Amerikaanse rijst steeg 5% deze week nu boeren er massaal voor kiezen om granen te planten i.p.v rijst. Dit zou de nerveusiteit rond de wereldwijde voedsel voorraad kunnen versterkenBron: Saxo Bank
Kijktip voor vanavond: Schitterende Docu: De risicojongens Maandag 24 januari 23.00 NED.2 DOKUMENT – DE RISICOJONGENS
Frans Bromet volgt twee jonge Nederlandse ondernemers die particuliere beleggers grote winsten beloven als ze hun geld stoppen in onroerend goed in Montenegro. Wie zijn die rijke investeerders? En waarom nemen zij grote financiële risico’s?
Heeft iemand deel 1 al gezien?
Deel 1: http://www.ncrv.nl/ncrvgemist/17-1-2011/risicojongens
Hier een voorproefje van deel 2:
Superbelegger Jim Rogers: olie naar $200.
When it comes to state visits the devil is in the detail. It’s the nuances of the arrangements that allow you to calibrate just how important a relationship is.
That’s why the world has been watching the visit of the Chinese President Hu Jintao with such attention. The state dinner at the White House – described as an “intimate” event – apparently signifies that Washington rates China as pretty much the most important nation, economically, on earth. But the visit has also prompted much speculation in the press about how long the Chinese economic miracle can last and whether it is about to come to a juddering halt.
Jim Rogers, the legendary investor who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, has moved his family to Singapore and is making sure his two young daughters can speak Mandarin. He spoke to the Business Daily’s Justin Rowlatt.
#Zilver,#Goud? #Palladuim zal beter presteren.
The price for platinum has risen in 2010, but not as much as the prices for gold, silver or palladium. This was stated by the German precious metals trading group Heraeus in their recent report. Due to its high price, platinum is more and more substituted by palladium in the automobile sector.
The main reason for the weak price development of platinum was a sharp decline in the European markets for diesel vehicles, In the catalysts of diesel vehicles platinum is used, while petrol cars run on palladium. Another factor that had a negative effect on the price development of platinum derived from the massive purchases by many car producers in the course of the metal’s price decline in the year 2008. In contrast to the development in the automobile sector, the investment demand for platinum remained on a continually high level. The ETF investments in the platinum sector rose by 80 percent to 38 tons in the year 2010. Platinum reached a price slightly above $ 1,820 per ounce last week.
Palladium temporarily hit $ 822 per ounce last week and thus reached a nine-year high. The remarkable rally of the palladium price in nearly all of the year 2010 was not driven by a growing demand from the automobile industry, but was particularly boosted by a strongly rising investment demand. International investors almost doubled their positions in sector ETFs to 68 tons last year. The physical demand for bars and coins also increased, but not as strongly as the demand for ETFs. It is widely expected that the success story of palladium will continue in the year 2011. Both in the United States and in the BRIC countries like China, more and more buyers prefer petrol cars. An increase of the automobile sector´s worldwide sales volume by 3 to 5 million petrol cars would boost the demand for palladium by another 15 tons. The fact that the Russian state stocks of the metal will be almost depleted this year should also be taken into account, when looking at the future price development of palladium. This development will contribute to keep the price of palladium on a continually high level. Rising recycling activities will only balance out this factor in a limited scope. Although the Heraeus precious metals trading group generally expected a shrinking investment demand in the year 2011, they nevertheless are convinced that palladium will once again be the outperformer among the four main precious metals.
Published by GoldMoney
Copyright © 2011. All rights reserved.
Written by Roman Baudzus – Contributing WriterThis material is prepared for general circulation and may not have regard to the particular circumstances or needs of any specific person who reads it. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representations or warranty, express or implied, is made by GoldMoney, its affiliates, representatives or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All opinions and estimates contained in this report reflect the writer’s judgement as of the date of this report, are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without legal responsibility. To the full extent permitted by law neither GoldMoney nor any of its affiliates, representatives, nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained herein. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published without the prior consent of GoldMoney.
http://goldmoney.com/gold-research/palladium-will-again-be-an-outperformer-in-2011.html
#Zilver door het putje. Iemand een idee waarom?
Correctie op Wall Street aanstaande
AMSTERDAM – Tom DeMark verwacht dat de Amerikaanse S&P500 minimaal 11% gaat corrigeren vanaf de huidige 2-jarige top. De vooraanstaande beurshandelaar baseert zich op zijn technische indicatoren, die voor het eerst sinds medio 2007 een verkoopsignaal geven.
DeMark is al 39 jaar bezeten van de beurshandel. Naast zijn tijdrovende werk als handelaar en adviseur voor institutionele partijen schreef hij diverse boeken, waaronder `The New Science of Technical Analysis’. De door hem ontwikkelde TD-indicatoren zijn onder meer toegankelijk via de in de financiële wereld veel gebruikte terminals van Bloomberg.
Waar de meeste handelaren trendvolgers zijn, ligt de focus van DeMark bij het signaleren van een trendomkeer. Hij ziet zich ook niet zozeer als een technisch analist, maar meer als een markttimer.
Hij meent dat vermoeidheidsverschijnselen in een zijwaarts bewegende markt goed opgespoord kunnen worden. Als een markt zich duidelijk in een trend voortbeweegt, zoals nu bij veel aandelenbeurzen, is dat lastiger. Toch verschaft de markt volgens hem dan toch ook vaak aanwijzingen, zoals een afzwakking van de koersbewegingen richting de trend.
Handelaar en directeur Rob Koenders van Harmony Vermogensbeheer ziet zich door DeMark gesterkt in zijn eigen visie. „Veel van mijn indicatoren wijzen op een aanstaande correctie na de gestage opmars sinds de zomer. Dat zou ook alleen maar gezond zijn. Zelf hebben wij de laatste weken al veel aandelenposities afgebouwd.”
Hoewel DeMark een zekere reputatie geniet, valt de betrouwbaar van zijn indicatoren niet goed vast te stellen. Dat hij gisteren met zijn advies publiekelijk naar buiten trad, is namelijk uitzonderlijk. Het blijft dan ook gissen wanneer hij zijn klanten na het verkoopadvies medio 2007 aanspoorde om weer posities op te bouwen.
http://www.telegraaf.nl/dft/8778130/___Correctie_op_Wall_Street_aanstaande__.html
10 zaken die u moet weten voordat u in Goud en Zilver belegd:
#1 Precious Metals Markets Are Highly Manipulated
#2 The Long-Term Trends Are Very Favorable For Precious Metals
#3 Gold Holds Value Over Long Periods Of Time
#4 The Value Of The Dollar Is Going Down
#5 Physical Gold Is Preferable To Paper Gold
#6 Diversification Is Key
#7 Accumulate Different Denominations If You Can
#8 You Cannot Eat Precious Metals
#9 Do Not Advertise That You Are Accumulating Precious Metals
#10 Get Educated
Hieronder vindt u de wekelijkse commodity update en een overzicht van de kernpunten
• Jan Claude Trichet’s strenge opmerkingen over inflatie vergroten de kans op een rente verhoging. Dit zal waarschijnlijk eerder gebeuren dan verwacht.
• De belangrijkste Chinese index verloor de winst van een jaar, nadat de bank van China aankondigde de bank reserves te verhogen.
• Europese Brent crude lijkt de eerste te zijn om het 100 dollar niveau te testen, nu het door gaat met handelen tegen een steil premium boven WTI Crude.
• Zilver heeft 3% onder goud gehandeld de laatste tijd en zit vast tussen de 28 en 30 dollar terwijl goud handelt tussen 1350 en 1400 dollar. Alles lager dan deze 2 dieptepunten vergroot het risico op extra position squaring.
• Het rapport van de USDA op woensdag heeft nog een ronde van prijsverhoging voor mais, soyabonen en katoen veroorzaakt nu de wereldwijde voorraad vermindert. De vraag en aanbod ratio voor mais bereikte een 15-jarig dieptepunt en dat van soja bonen een 30-jarig dieptepunt.Bron: Saxo Bank
Lees de nieuwste analyse van Martin Armstrong: Are You Ready to Rumble.
Attachments:
Are%20You%20Ready%20to%20Rumble%2001-05-2011.pdfBlue Monday?
Blue Monday is een naam, gegeven aan een datum voor de zogenaamd meest deprimerende dag van het jaar. De vader van ‘blauwe maandag’ is de in depressies gespecialiseerde Britse psycholoog Cliff Arnall.
Volgens een persbericht van de Britse Mental Health Foundation[6] is Arnalls formule:
Hierin is W een maat voor het weer, d voor de schulden, T voor hoe lang geleden het kerst was, Q staat voor hoe goed men nog de goede voornemens volhoudt, M voor het motivatieniveau en N voor het gevoel om actie te ondernemen. Er wordt niet aangegeven waar D voor staat, noch wat de eenheden van de variabelen zijn.
Zie verder: http://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Monday_(datum)
Op dit forum kan ook code geplaatst worden. Die moet tussen backticks(`) zitten.
Een backtick ziet er zo uit: ‘ en staat links boven onder de escape samen met de tilde (~).
Mijn mening is om niet al te veel topics te openen en de discussie geconcentreerd te houden. Wat denken jullie? Desgewenst kan natuurlijk een nieuw draadje begonnen worden.
Op 3 januari 2011 zijn de nieuwe American Silver Eagle munten van het jaargang 2011 geintroduceerd door de US Mint. Deze munten zijn afgelopen jaren extreem populair onder beleggers in fysiek zilver, waarin elk jaar weer records werden verbroken. Waar in de periode vanaf 1986, het jaar waarin deze zilveren munten werden geintroduceerd, tot en met 2007 jaarlijks tussen de 5 en de 10 miljoen munten verkocht werden zijn er de afgelopen jaren aanzienlijk meer munten verkocht aan beleggers in zilver. Zo zijn er in 2008 ongeveer 19,5 miljoen zilveren Silver Eagle munten verkocht. In 2009 waren dit er ruim 28,7 miljoen en in 2010 is dit aantal zilver munten zelfs toegenomen tot 34,6 miljoen stuks.
Hoewel het jaar 2011 pas enkele weken onderweg is en de munten van het jaargang 2011 pas 10 dagen verhandelbaar zijn; blijkt uit de rapporten van de US Mint dat er maar liefst 3,4 miljoen Silver Eagle munten verkocht zijn in minder dan twee weken tijd. Hiermee is gelijk al een record gezet want nog nooit eerder werden er in de eerste maand van het nieuwe jaar meer dan 3 miljoen van deze zilveren munten verkocht.
Daxen, dat is wel erg weinig. Volgens mij bedoel je 2,79 MB. Ik heb de toegestane bestandsgrootte verhoogd.
Daxen, hoe groot is het bestand?
