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Forum Forums Grondstoffen Junior Manie officieel van start!

Dit onderwerp bevat 9 reacties, heeft 3 stemmen, en is het laatst gewijzigd door Satilmis Satilmis 12 jaren, 4 maanden geleden.

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    Nico Pantelis
    Nico Pantelis

    De kogel is door de kerk! The Wall Street Journal publiceerde als eerste mainstream media een positief stuk over de Goud & Zilver junior sector.

    Ik volg de sector al verschillende jaren. U bent inmiddels bekend met mijn analyses en koersdoelen voor fysiek goud & zilver, maar ik ben ook een fervent aanhanger van de bedrijven actief in de sector, en dan meer bepaald de juniors — de exploratiebedrijven en/of jonge producenten.

    Maar tot op heden hebben deze aandelen amper enig beduidend rendement kunnen voorleggen. Daar kan vanaf deze week wel eens verandering in komen. Jeff Opdycke van het invloedrijke The Wall Street Journal bracht afgelopen weekend als eerste de pro’s en con’s (rendement versus risico) van de junior sector in beeld.null.

    Voor wie opzoek ik naar de volgende Nasdaq-lookalike bubbel, is hier volgens mij aan het juiste adres. Naargelang de bull market in goud & zilver vordert, zal het grote geld opzoek gaan naar deze koopjes in de sector, en zullen vertienvoudigingen van de betreffende aandelen schering en inslag zijn: ‘het kot zal te klein zijn’! Dit zou wel eens het officiële startschot van de manie inluiden.

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    waarom is de handel in brett resources stil gelegd in canada

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    Nico Pantelis
    Nico Pantelis

    Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada – Trading Halt – Brett Resources Inc. – BBR

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    Nico Pantelis
    Nico Pantelis

    Overname van Brett Resources door Osisko tegen 2,92 CAD

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    Er komt een gekte in zilver -en goudmijnaandelen. De koersen kunnen wel met 542.000% omhoog!

    With gold settling around $1,375 and silver holding $27.50, King World News interviewed John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist at Sprott Asset Management. When asked about the negativity surrounding the advance in gold and the disbelief in the upward price movement Embry said, “I think it’s very simple, the mainstream press is so negative on gold, and you get all of these high profile commentators like Dennis Gartman and they are always out saying the same thing. They are just sort of putting out the idea that, ‘Oh yeah, it may go a little bit higher BUT then it’s going to get smashed.’”
    November 25, 2010

    Embry continues:

    “And I think collectively this type of propaganda I would call it, works on the average man’s mind. It’s created a collective negativity which is in my opinion dead wrong, and it just sets the stage for the next big up leg in both metals.”

    When asked if we will see a repeat of the mania from late ’79 early ’80 where the share prices of some juniors skyrocketed between 34,000% and 542,000% in price Embry replied, “I would say unquestionably. I have been quoted a few times saying 5 and 10 baggers will be commonplace but I honestly think that this thing is big enough that we will see valuations at stupid prices, the likes of which we haven’t seen since the internet craze. It will be of that magnitude I believe before this thing runs its course.”

    When asked why more seasoned professionals were not talking about an explosion in the price of silver John said, “Well, I’ll tell you one pro who’s talking about a blastoff and that’s my partner Eric Sprott, who if you check his record over the last 25 years, he’s probably as prescient as any man on earth. And he said to me the other day, ‘I think this thing is going to be $50 in several months and I think it’s the absolute investment of the decade if not more.’ So, I mean there’s one guy who’s opinion is worth listening to who thinks the silver price is just getting ready to go ballistic.”

    Regarding gold Embry stated, “The debt in the system and the whole financial fragility of the whole system does not give them the option of withdrawing liquidity from the system. It forces them to pour more liquidity into the system. So, therefore gold is the monetary metal. It is not gold that’s changing, it’s been money for thousands of years, it’s the value of the paper money that’s changing. And if these people are required to create more and more money to keep the system intact, the price of gold is going to go up in terms of that paper money.”

    The complete in-depth King World News interview with John Embry will be released shortly.
    John Embry has been in the business for 48 years. At the beginning of the secular bull market in gold, John was the only mainstream (RBC Capital at the time) institutional individual to proclaim the bull market in gold. RBC was saying that’s not the message of the bank, so John was taking a lot of heat for his stance. Fortunately for all of us Eric Sprott hired John out of the mainstream and the rest is history.

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    Je hebt junior’s (goudzoekers) en senior (dit zijn al mijnen).
    De senior’s gaan het laatste half jaar al aardig omhoog. Kijk naar VEN.TO.

    Bij junior’s is dit een stuk gevaarlijker. Deze maken geen winst. Je moet echt geluk hebben. Maar inderdaad 1000% is inderdaad goed mogelijk.

    Deze tip heb ik van Rob.

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    Van Rob:

    Goud is ongeveer 1400 dollar voor 31,1 gram. Dus hoeveel moet dat koper worden?

    Nee. Rare-metals zijn het nieuwe goud. Deze zijn overal te vinden. Maar zeer moeilijk te verwerken. Buiten china zijn er maar een paar mijntjes actief.

    China heeft 97% van de markt. China heeft dit produkt altijd zeer laag in prijs gehouden. Dus heeft de rest van de wereld er niet in geinvesteerd.
    Maar dit gaat nu veranderen.

    p.s. 2011 wordt het jaar van de junior-mijnaandelen.

    Hier volgt een artikel:

    2011 is the Year of the Precious Metals Junior Miners by James West on December 31, 2010

    By James West
    December 31, 2010

    With gold and silver prices both boiling ferociously into record territory repeatedly throughout the last half of 2010, the outlook for 2010 looks even more bullish for the monetary metals. Forget the perennially fallacious predictions of the financial mainstream. There’s nothing but higher prices for both these metals on the horizon.

    The reason is elementary. With the United States firmly entrenched in its own death spiral financing, whereby it has no choice but to continuously prop up its crumbling economy with monthly injections of increasingly abundant and therefore declining in value paper dollars as the only means to generate big numbers in the stock market, gold and silver will rise.

    Even if all of the gold ounces purchased, hoarded and fabricated into jewelry each year were replaced by new discoveries, both gold and silver would keep rising, simply in relative value to the U.S. greenback.

    Gold is finishing up 2010 with its strongest year on year price increase since the decade-long bull market first picked up a head of steam in 2001 with a gain of 28.8 per cent.

    Silver, however, was a brighter star, having finished the year up over 80% since its 2009 close of $17 an ounce. Closing 2010 at over $30 an ounce, it has been an even better performer over the last ten years, now up over 600% as compared with gold’s almost 500% increase in the same period.

    The less well-known precious metals, which also qualify as both precious and money, palladium and platinum, are also both stellar performers in the last year, having risen by 95% and 15% respectively.

    But even copper has set new records this year, and consensus estimates point to that trend continuing into 2011 and beyond. Gold Fields Mineral Services predicts copper will reach CA$11,040 per tonne by 2015.

    Buying the physical metals is obviously a safe bet going into 2011. Since the United States leadership lacks both the intellectual capital and the moral fortitude to responsibly manage its currency and its economy, investors around the world will succeed handsomely just exchanging their U.S. paper money for precious metals.

    But the real money in 2011 is going to be made in the junior mining companies who will be the source of replacement ounces for all of the major mining companies who need to pay a premium for advanced discoveries that are needed to their much larger valuations.

    In the period from the beginning of 2010 to the end of 2010, there were no less than 520 stocks on the precious metals-heavy TSX Venture exchange that returned over 100% in value within the 12 month period. No other class of public company equity even comes close, with most other sectors performing as net losers in the same period. No other exchange can demonstrate anywhere near that number of stock doubles within a single sector.

    The TSX Venture composite index shot up an incredible 48% in 2010, which makes it one of the world’s best performing stock exchanges for the year.
    Compare that performance to the measly 17.85% offered up by the Dow Jones Industrials or the paltry 12.6% delivered by the S&P 500.

    Its not just the level of performance that is enriching investors. On December 17 the TMX Group announced that Toronto Stock Exchange and TSX Venture Exchange together established a new trading volume record yesterday, December 16, 2010. Year-to-date combined volume traded was 166,174,821,823 shares, which surpassed the previous record of 165,351,274,278 set on December 31, 2009.

    So the increased liquidity in these exchanges demonstrates that the trend for 2011 is clearly for more investment in natural resources and commodities.

    The surge in commodity performance has also been a boon to the Canadian dollar, which rose to an 8-month high on the back of commodities prices.

    Possibly the best trades investors can make in 2011 is to take their declining in value U.S. dollar holdings, use those to buy equities in the surging precious metals exploration stocks, and then sell them in Canadian dollars in a year’s time. Investors will capture not just the leverage to the prices of gold and silver offered by successful Canadian juniors. They will also benefit from the strengthening Canadian dollar versus the U.S.
    dollar as that trend continues into 2011.

    Even oil is set to rise through $100 a barrel in 2011, which will hurt consumers at the pump. The best hedge against higher fuel prices is owning shares in publicly traded energy exploration stocks that can deliver 100% gains or better in a single year if they discover new reservoirs of hydrocarbons.

    There is a time coming when the global investing public will suddenly clue into what is right now a not well known fact: the best place to make money in 2011 will be on the Canadian TSX and TSX Venture exchanges.

    James West is the publisher of the highly influential and widely respected Midas Letter at Midas Letter Premium Edition features 5 stock picks on the first Sunday of each month on the TSX Venture Exchange.

    The 2009 model portfolio performance was 237%. Until December 31st, subscribers to Midas Letter Premium Edition will enjoy it at an annual rate of $39 per month in perpetuity, and be entered to win US$100,000 in gold bullion. After January 1, the price is $49 per month.

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    #Zilver,#Goud? #Palladuim zal beter presteren.

    The price for platinum has risen in 2010, but not as much as the prices for gold, silver or palladium. This was stated by the German precious metals trading group Heraeus in their recent report. Due to its high price, platinum is more and more substituted by palladium in the automobile sector.

    The main reason for the weak price development of platinum was a sharp decline in the European markets for diesel vehicles, In the catalysts of diesel vehicles platinum is used, while petrol cars run on palladium. Another factor that had a negative effect on the price development of platinum derived from the massive purchases by many car producers in the course of the metal’s price decline in the year 2008. In contrast to the development in the automobile sector, the investment demand for platinum remained on a continually high level. The ETF investments in the platinum sector rose by 80 percent to 38 tons in the year 2010. Platinum reached a price slightly above $ 1,820 per ounce last week.

    Palladium temporarily hit $ 822 per ounce last week and thus reached a nine-year high. The remarkable rally of the palladium price in nearly all of the year 2010 was not driven by a growing demand from the automobile industry, but was particularly boosted by a strongly rising investment demand. International investors almost doubled their positions in sector ETFs to 68 tons last year. The physical demand for bars and coins also increased, but not as strongly as the demand for ETFs. It is widely expected that the success story of palladium will continue in the year 2011. Both in the United States and in the BRIC countries like China, more and more buyers prefer petrol cars. An increase of the automobile sector´s worldwide sales volume by 3 to 5 million petrol cars would boost the demand for palladium by another 15 tons. The fact that the Russian state stocks of the metal will be almost depleted this year should also be taken into account, when looking at the future price development of palladium. This development will contribute to keep the price of palladium on a continually high level. Rising recycling activities will only balance out this factor in a limited scope. Although the Heraeus precious metals trading group generally expected a shrinking investment demand in the year 2011, they nevertheless are convinced that palladium will once again be the outperformer among the four main precious metals.

    Published by GoldMoney
    Copyright © 2011. All rights reserved.
    Written by Roman Baudzus – Contributing Writer

    This material is prepared for general circulation and may not have regard to the particular circumstances or needs of any specific person who reads it. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representations or warranty, express or implied, is made by GoldMoney, its affiliates, representatives or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All opinions and estimates contained in this report reflect the writer’s judgement as of the date of this report, are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without legal responsibility. To the full extent permitted by law neither GoldMoney nor any of its affiliates, representatives, nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained herein. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published without the prior consent of GoldMoney.

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    Will Junior Mining Stocks Be THE Investment of 2011?

    If you think gold and silver as an asset class are severely misunderstood, and it is, then multiply that misunderstanding 10 times, and you will realize the level of misconceptions that exist around junior mining stocks.

    The typical propaganda disseminated by bankers that surround gold and silver every single year when gold and silver corrections occur dominates the mainstream financial landscape right now. In fact, even though a rapid correction in gold/silver prices and gold/silver mining stocks is normal behavior at least twice a year, for every single year of this 9-year gold and silver bull, every single correction and consolidation phase has elicited chatter from the same financial shills about the end of the precious metals “bubble”. And amazingly every year, the mainstream financial media grants them a platform to spread their disinformation to confuse investors. Last year, when gold dipped from $1,421 an ounce to $1,332 an ounce in just 6 trading days in November, an analyst I spoke to in Asia told me that he would not buy gold until after the bubble completely burst and that he would consider buying gold when it reached $600 an ounce. I believe that he is still waiting to buy today.

    You may feel that this is an odd time to write a piece about one of the riskiest sectors in the precious metal investment class, especially as gold and silver prices continue to plummet in the futures markets but the proper time to buy, of course, is when fear is high and prices are low. However, once this correction ends, and I believe that it will end somewhere around the $1,300 an ounce mark and within the next several days, and not with a further $250 an ounce correction and the $1,090 an ounce mark called for by Seabreeze Partners Management’s GP Doug Kass, I expect junior miners to have a banner year. Even with my expectation of increased volatility in precious metal stocks throughout 2011, I believe that 2011 will be another strong up year for junior mining stocks after a very solid year last year. For now, I’m not going to worry about Mr. Kass’s recent call for gold to shed another $250 an ounce unless gold breaks below $1,300. Though none of us have a crystal ball that allows us to predict the future with certainty, I will only readjust my stance that this correction is days away from ending if gold breaks below $1,300. Furthermore, as you can see from the chart below, the declaration of select financial analysts in the mainstream media today that the current state of this gold bull resembles the parabolic blow-off tops of the 2000 dot com bubble and the 2008 oil price spike is patently false.

    Though I haven’t reproduced the 10-year silver chart here, if one were to draw a long-term trend line through the last ten years of silver prices, one would see that despite the short-term spike in oil prices to close 2010, there is no parabolic spike above the long-term trend line for silver either. For now, I’m going to directly contradict Kass and predict a pop higher of at least $40 -$50 an ounce in gold sometime during the 10 trading days between January 28 and February 11th.

    So now that we’ve established that there has been no blow-off top for gold or silver yet, let’s turn our attention to the even more misunderstood topic of junior gold and silver mining companies. To begin, let’s squash the notion that you can invest in junior mining stocks by investing in the Junior Gold Miners Market Vectors ETF GDXJ. Let’s take a look at the top eight holdings of this ETF that comprise more than 27% of the ETF’s net assets: Hecla Mining, European Goldfields, Coeur d’Alene Mines, Allied Nevada Gold, Gabriel Resources, Alamos Gold and Silver Standard Resources. Hecla Mining has a market cap of 2.20 billion, European Goldfields, 2.74 billion, Couer d’Alene, 1.99 billion, Allied Nevada, 2.21 billion, Gabriel Resources, 2.48 billion, Alamos Gold, 1.87 billion and Silver Standard 1.79 billion. Nearly all of the top 8 holdings in this “junior miner” ETF have market caps of near 2 billion dollars and fit the definition of mid-cap stocks rather than the tiny, small cap stocks that are representative of junior mining stocks.

    For example, more typical junior mining stocks like Greystar Resources currently has a market cap of approximately $276.24 million and Great Panther Silver, $224.27 million. On the other side of this spectrum, a large blue-chip company like Apple currently has a market cap of about $308.10 billion. With respect to market cap, it would take 1,115 to 1,373 companies the size of Greystar Resources or Great Panther to equal the size of Apple. In other words, junior mining stocks are so small that a small amount of interest in a fundamentally sound junior mining stock with a great story can move the stock price higher by 30% in a matter of days. Of course a hedge fund or one very wealthy investor that decides to divest a substantial percent of shares in a junior mining company can also move the price down 30% in a matter of days as well. Thus the combination of great risk and great reward that exists in the junior mining sector.

    So what are some of the biggest misconceptions that exist with junior mining stocks? The nonsense surrounding the junior mining sector is nonsense of a different nature than the nonsense that surrounds the major mining stocks and the gold/silver futures market. Bankers manipulate everything that has to do with gold and silver, including major and intermediate mining stocks, gold and silver futures contracts, gold/silver ETFs, and even junior mining stocks. In past years, it has been widely speculated that US hedge funds have unfairly manipulated junior mining stocks downward by taking large short positions against them to hedge their long positions in the major gold/silver miners and/or long positions in the gold/silver futures markets. When many of the junior mining stocks sold off by 75% during the latter half of 2008 after the US Federal Reserve enlisted the help of their puppet bullion banks to orchestrate a sell off of gold and silver in the futures markets, many investors were permanently scared off from ever investing in junior miners again. In fact, the share price of many junior miners have still not come back to par since that time.

    So why would I be advocating paying attention to junior miners now? Besides that fact that many of the best junior miners are on sale now, as gold and silver prices complete their current correction/consolidation phase and turn higher, I expect junior mining stocks to start attracting much more attention along with higher gold and silver prices.

    Many junior miners are among the lowest cost producers of gold and silver in the world or are prime acquisition targets from larger gold and silver companies that are suffering from depleting gold/silver reserves today. As interest in junior miners increase, if the rumors about hedge funds maintaining large short interests against junior mining stocks are true, then maintaining these short positions will become a very risky proposition in 2011. Furthermore, if these rumors are true, then as the majority of shorts held against junior mining stocks run for the exits, a lot of pent up energy in junior mining stocks will be released. I believe this was largely why 2010 was a banner year for many of the best junior mining stocks, as more than a handful rose by 200%, 300%, and 400% last year. Finally, interest in any one junior mining stock by a billionaire or multi-millionaire can be enough to blow the short interest of any hedge fund manager in a junior mining stock out of the water. In other words, when dealing with stocks with such small market caps, it only takes a small interest in them to cause their share price to double or triple. So if you believe gold and silver prices will continue to rise in 2011, you should most definitely consider learning more about junior mining stocks.

    That said, there are many pitfalls that you must avoid. Junior mining stocks are notoriously volatile and they will remain volatile to the downside at times even if hedge fund managers unwind all the supposed shorts they hold on this class of stocks. The vast majority of drill assays reported by junior mining companies will yield zero results and not significant discoveries of gold and silver. Out of the hundreds of junior mining stocks that exist, probably no more than few dozen merit serious consideration for investment. Exploration companies that actually discover an economically mineable monster deposit will be few and far between and the exception to the rule, not the norm. As the global monetary crisis intensifies, politics and government regulations/taxation may move solid junior mining companies into a riskier investment class depending on the jurisdictions in which they operate.

    In addition, junior mining stocks can also experience large unexpected drops in share price for no fundamental reason, but merely because one large investor decided to cash out, even if just to take profits. When a junior mining company is reported to have “discovered” a million ounces of gold, you should not take this report at face value. Often further digging will reveal that said company has no financing to bring the discovery to production, and that the million ounce “discovery” is a wishful extrapolation of resource estimates based upon only the best drill results and ignorance of all the bad drill results.

    So yes, the risks can be significant for an investor that dives headfirst into junior mining stocks without any experience, so much so that even gold mining executives that invest in junior mining companies have relayed expectations of only a 20% success rate among their junior mining investments. In conclusion, I believe that success rates with junior miners can be upwards of 30%, 40% or even 50% or more with a little bit of due diligence and under the right circumstances, such as those that will exist in 2011. Just don’t be suckered into purchasing junior mining investments sold to you be analysts that don’t understand this sector and that you yourself do not understand. With junior mining stocks you must always perform some research yourself to ensure that you understand each junior mining company you own at all times. Never violate this rule and you should be able to use junior mining company investments to considerably boost your profits in 2011.

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